# WINNING THE BET: IS IT LUCK OR JUST SIMPLY MATH?

Gambling

Betting is one of earliest games invented by humans as a past-time activity. If we date it back to its year of discovery which is 3000BC, it is believed to have existed for 5,020 years; and, it keeps on evolving for the past years as its enthusiasts become more creative in crafting different variety of the games to serve an amplified thrill to its patrons. Lately, betting is attracting more people in the cyberworld since it has been accepted as a new social norm. It is evident particularly in social media platforms.

Knowledge is Power

The reason why more people are drawn to it because it provides euphoric experience for every bet someone makes along with the tantalizing rewards, which could surmount to millions, set by game operators. The operators of this game have made millions or even billions of money out from these thrill seekers annually. Why is that so? Because most bettors have less to zero knowledge about probability and statistics. Winning a bet does not depend on luck; it solely relies on the bettor’s in-depth understanding of probability.

Probability: Winning Chance

Probability quantifies the possibility of “something” to occur which is expressed using the formula below.

The % chance of winning in a bet could fall between 0 (no occurrence of events) and 100 (the event always occurs) which is affected by the number of possible combinations in a game. Bear in mind that each game has a different probability of winning. The odds of the game can be expressed as moneyline, fractional, and decimal depending on which country it is operating. The amount of jackpot a bettor could take home is expressed as expected value.

Expected Value: Bettor’s ROI

Expected value (EV) is just simply the theoretical amount to be returned to the bettor after waging in the long run based on the game’s winning and losing probabilities.

Using the formula above, the bettor can calculate the amount of money he might win or lose depending on what sign it resulted to. If the EV is positive, then it implies profit over the betting time. Otherwise, it is counted as loss.

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Take Note! Bet cautiously for the house of chance is always favored by math.